O que é o Tarifaço de 2025 e Como Ele Afeta a Economia do Brasil

por: Julio Souza Foto: Canva

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[{"selector":"#anim-91b05fe2-b71d-4ee0-8484-4c645aabe5c3","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4a2a17d8-3d27-442d-a63a-eb4096fbb6a6","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(119.52862%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d8c42e06-e634-4292-aa68-96ec89e27a56","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b5abe17f-2aeb-4758-9087-69597004b309","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-63a14651-642e-4cfa-9bf0-5eb3210145a5","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a05ef99a-ba98-4a81-bf4c-c9456372bbe9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5a63fac9-893f-4ede-b3f6-7780ebb22cb0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-218.74994%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] O efeito imediato, segundo analistas, é uma queda nos preços internos. Com a dificuldade de exportar para os EUA, a tendência é que a produção que seria enviada para lá seja vendida no mercado nacional, aumentando a oferta. Seta Foto: Canva

[{"selector":"#anim-38b1f415-83be-4088-8b29-048c38f58568","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eb265fcf-e3f4-4126-ba86-2aed4763c9a5","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(120.20202%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1790e032-0fd2-4ccc-8f42-96e855bf77fb","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-65c69c4a-5f5b-4977-983e-9bbbb2659e4d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-24309448-db70-4d9d-b13b-d606f2d70263","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d2b05285-2c55-4b4c-9322-bdf5701bd13e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-46c0b1af-a883-4022-b9e9-a86c624978f0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-208.3333%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Esse aumento de oferta, especialmente de alimentos como frutas e peixes, deve conter a inflação em 2025. É uma consequência direta da sobretaxa: o que não é vendido para fora, fica mais barato para quem está aqui. Seta Foto: Canva

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[{"selector":"#anim-1686246d-7850-4deb-a3c7-552a1eb1ca4b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6bf2e323-f569-435d-9357-35bfb7b37b71","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bf467ee2-5339-4837-bd28-ed6488fdd906","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-64795230-5383-456e-893a-ab5512c893b8","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8d81f60d-8982-4494-918d-4226b822a757","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-924c6511-d60e-4fa7-af17-dd3a0cd229f1","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-de61de33-d6fd-4336-b358-b42277bdd87e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3c88b1c3-1342-497b-975a-ce96e08249ff","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-330f1f8e-be99-4678-9f50-3457f5ac4f70","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1200,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8e1a471f-0ee6-403b-9c2f-c4c032ded0f3","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-295.23811%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1200,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3a460f69-10b4-4d6f-af0e-0d4b06770c85","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1200,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-80d9556b-a042-46da-aa7c-d217076560e1","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(295.23806%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1200,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Seta No entanto, o cenário para 2026 é incerto. O prejuízo deste ano pode fazer com que os produtores reduzam sua produção futura. Com menos oferta no ano seguinte, os preços podem subir, gerando uma pressão inflacionária. Seta

[{"selector":"#anim-03a191a2-73de-4aea-b6e3-8408879088a9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-846a531d-04e3-4d10-9d78-081ccf39657a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(120.20202%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8631d470-c5e6-40b0-88d9-128f20873e2e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-948d40f0-78f8-4830-ace7-7289b03bb711","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3580e0bf-05ec-464c-9e4d-b53f0ee5bbd3","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-96b27044-6ca0-44cc-a94f-9f8b73c1efa4","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d07fa787-4d1e-4174-a355-f272ef4d9f41","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-208.3333%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Esse alívio temporário na inflação de 2025 pode influenciar o Banco Central. Alguns analistas acreditam que a queda nos preços pode abrir espaço para uma antecipação no corte da taxa de juros (Selic), atualmente em 15% ao ano. Seta Foto: Canva

[{"selector":"#anim-a67bb92d-b53d-4cf6-891a-94dbcc794da1","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aa743a48-bc61-46ac-ba66-6efcd9d382a7","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(119.52862%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f26f252f-6273-4978-b707-d5602ac1d894","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1937267e-3974-4193-819b-c0223cb4a18d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eb512e5e-d570-497a-b691-f5f43ee8fe32","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b1bee9d1-5903-432f-a7dd-8ecc4a305845","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-08b13008-0a7a-41a7-8bb6-7d9b48cf0e5d","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-208.3333%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] A maioria do mercado, contudo, permanece cética quanto a um corte de juros ainda em 2025. A visão predominante é que, apesar do alívio pontual, o cenário de longo prazo ainda não justifica uma mudança na política monetária. Seta Foto: Canva

[{"selector":"#anim-ffb045ce-5b53-4b15-aa71-edd1cb4ddc36","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-37d11c7a-1069-4cf4-8b1b-39be68b16501","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(120.20202%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5b22250e-811d-451e-85ef-03a31ebacfb9","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-200.36497%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4cf07cfc-d17c-445a-a6f7-c3670352dab2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c82aff2c-0971-4a8d-b1bc-b84b1adf1d63","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":5000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-12fc4c3f-abd3-4091-ab14-c322a1370c86","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1e80ccdf-e202-4f49-a27e-a956a3323774","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-208.3333%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Em resumo, o tarifaço gera um efeito paradoxal: uma boa notícia para a inflação no curto prazo, mas uma grande incerteza para o futuro, com riscos de aumento de preços em 2026 e um debate sobre os próximos passos do Banco Central. Seta Foto: Canva

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